Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 630 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 100845
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
 
 Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to
 the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection.  A 0448 UTC
 ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt
 winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the
 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
 0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered
 to 35 kt.
 
 The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
 shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone.  The Decay SHIPS
 intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours
 or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a
 more stable thermodynamic environment.  Therefore, weakening is
 forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate
 into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
 the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN
 consensus models.
 
 The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically
 this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward,
 or 320/8 kt.  Paul should continue to move within the mid-level
 steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then
 a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone
 moves within the low-level trades.  The NHC track forecast is an
 update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus
 guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for PAUL

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman