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 942 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018
 
 Paul is looking very ragged this evening.  The low-level center has
 become completely exposed, with the nearest deep convection
 displaced about 70 n mi to its southwest.  The intensity has been
 held at 40 kt, deferring to earlier ASCAT data which showed a wide
 swath of 35-40 kt winds.  Given the structure of Paul, any
 intensification seems very unlikely, so gradual weakening is now
 forecast through the end of the period.  By day 4, a combination of
 cold SSTs and dry, stable air should cause the cyclone to become a
 remnant low.  The new NHC forecast shows faster weakening than
 before, and is now closer to the intensity consensus through 120 h.
 
 The low-level swirl that makes up most of Paul has wobbled a bit
 this evening, but a longer-term motion estimate is still
 northwestward, or 320/9 kt.  The global models are in good agreement
 that Paul will continue northwestward for another day or so, before
 gradually turning westward as it weakens and eventually becomes a
 remnant low.  No significant changes were made to the track
 forecast, which remains very near the multi-model consensus
 throughout the forecast period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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