880 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 092031
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018
 
 ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was
 slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt
 vectors observed in the southeast quadrant.  Based on this data, the
 initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt.  In an effort to
 maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports
 45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24
 h, but little change in strength is realistically expected.
 Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and
 decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually
 causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the
 forecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
 than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the
 intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken
 sooner than currently indicated.
 
 Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at
 around 9 kt.  Almost no change has been made to the official track
 forecast.  Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next
 day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening
 cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to
 the north.  The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement
 through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly
 related to how fast the cyclone will weaken.  The NHC forecast
 remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky