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 213 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 091442
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018
 
 Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory.  Satellite
 imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located
 on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the
 cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear.  The
 advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
 estimate from TAFB.  Although the shear is forecast to relax
 during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over
 marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass.  Therefore only modest
 strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a
 leveling off of the intensity.  The official forecast is a little
 below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical
 guidance.
 
 Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt.  The cyclone is
 expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak
 mid-level ridge over the next day or so.  Later in the forecast
 period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to
 turn toward the west-northwest.  The official track forecast is
 similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical
 model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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