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 441 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 090843
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018
 
 Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened.  The
 cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half
 of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east
 of the center.  A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed
 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant.  Based on that data and
 the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity
 is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.
 
 Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days
 while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist
 environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely
 because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the
 next day or so.  The opportunity for intensification should end in a
 few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and
 into a drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity forecast
 is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the
 model guidance.
 
 Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the
 northwest than expected.  Smoothing through the fixes yields an
 initial motion estimate of 320/7.   A continued northwestward motion
 is expected during the next day or two.  After that time, Paul
 should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge
 to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period
 when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The
 NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in
 the initial motion and position.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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