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 180 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 090246
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018
 
 The depression has changed little during the past several hours. The
 system remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge
 of the main area of deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern
 is due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite
 intensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity
 is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some
 opportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it
 remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment.
 However, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up
 much during that time period, so only slow strengthening is
 anticipated.  Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the
 system are forecast to fall below 26 deg C.  These unfavorable
 oceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause
 a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
 the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model
 guidance.
 
 The depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than
 before.  The models all show the system turning northwestward
 overnight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it
 is steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves
 over cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest
 is forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow.  The
 new NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into
 better agreement with the latest consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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