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 130 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 082051
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018
 
 GOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression on the
 edge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of
 the circulation exposed due to shear.   Dvorak estimates are a
 little higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong
 enough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the
 winds will stay 30 kt.  Gradual strengthening is anticipated while
 the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate
 shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off
 quite a bit and weakening should begin.  The biggest change is that
 the model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due
 to easterly shear persisting for a bit longer.  Only a small
 decrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but
 later advisories could be lower if model trends continue.
 
 Visible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a
 degree west of the last advisory.  Ironically, the initial motion
 estimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge over
 Mexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so,
 then the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to
 turn the system back toward the west-northwest.  Numerical guidance
 is a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast
 follows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the
 NHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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