745 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 171444
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
 800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012
 
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PAUL SINCE ABOUT
 0200 UTC.  THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS WAS FROM AN OSCAT OVERPASS ABOUT 8 HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE
 LACK OF CONVECTION AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE THAT TIME IT IS
 ESTIMATED THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A
 COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
 DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THE LOW SHOULD
 DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A
 DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
 
 THE CENTER OF PAUL IS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
 BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/10.  THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
 MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  17/1500Z 27.0N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 28.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/1200Z 29.3N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/0000Z 30.5N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN