950 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 160849
 TCDEP1
  
 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENT
 SATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND
 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING
 THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT.
  
 PAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY
 THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN
 TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
 TO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
 FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
 THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 TAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
 PENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.
  
 MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
 SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
 MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED
 DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE
 IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
 WEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL
 IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
 BAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
 AND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH
 END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  48H  18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART