789 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150854
 TCDEP1
  
 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
 200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
  
 PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
 TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
 THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
 EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
 T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
 WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
 HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
 HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
 ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
 COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
 STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
  
 THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
 A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
 MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
 EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
 CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
 BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
 TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
 LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
 THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
 THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.
  
 THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
 TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
 TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART