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 713 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 141438
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
 SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CURVED BAND WITH
 VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
 UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 45 KT.
  
 VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
 PAUL IS TITLED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL
 EASTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
 BECOMING BETTER VERTICALLY ALIGNED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE...AND BECAUSE PAUL IS
 FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST
 ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE
 MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO
 INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE TRACK. THESE
 CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND PAUL IS NOW
 FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
 THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE FEATURES THAT ARE
 STEERING PAUL ARE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS...CAUSING PAUL TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE WEAKENING STORM IS FORECAST TO
 BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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