587 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036
 TCDEP1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
 SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT
 CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
 THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM
 TROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
 PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND
 VECTORS AROUND 30 KT.
  
 PAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
 EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER
 ESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW
 DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY.
 ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
 CHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE
 TURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA
 PENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
  
 THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL
 TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
 HOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
 AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE
 FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
 SHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
 MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI