679 
 WTNT41 KNHC 122035
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
  
 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
 PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
 SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
 THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
 WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
 DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
 A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
 OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER. 
  
 PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
 MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
 LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
 DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/2100Z 25.5N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 25.4N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 25.0N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  14/0600Z 24.2N  74.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN