145 
 WTNT41 KNHC 121439
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
 THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
 BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. 
 ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
 BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
 TROPICAL STORM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
 THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA.  THE PERSISTENT
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
 AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
 WINDS.  PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
 36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
 DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
  
 THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
 DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS
 EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
 LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
 SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK IS
 ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
 IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST IN 36H.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  12/1500Z 25.5N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 25.7N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 25.6N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 24.5N  73.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  14/1200Z 23.5N  75.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE