644 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 211439
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
 
 Conventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia
 remains poorly organized.  The low-level circulation is elongated
 from north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner
 core.  While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in
 an almost linear area west and south of the center.  The latest
 satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
 advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
 
 Patricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of
 270/10.  There is no change to the track forecast philosophy.  The
 tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to
 west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge
 over the Gulf of Mexico.  After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected
 to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep-
 layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern
 Pacific.  The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this
 scenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern
 Mexico between 48-72 hours.  The new forecast track is similar to,
 but a little faster than, the previous track, and it lies in the
 middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.
 
 Continued light shear and warm sea surface temperatures are
 favorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen if the storm can
 overcome its current disorganized condition.  Based on the premise
 that this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that
 of the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a
 hurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through
 landfall.  Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak
 intensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a
 possibility given the favorable environment.  After landfall,
 Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of
 western Mexico.
 
 There are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this
 time.  Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later
 today or tonight.
 
 It should be noted that several of the global models develop a low
 pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five
 days.  At this time, it appears that this system will be a
 non-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia
 moving northeastward across Mexico.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/1500Z 12.9N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 13.4N  99.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven