255 
 WTNT42 KNHC 100237
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008
  
 PALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
 12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND
 VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION
 ...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE
 EAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
 CONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE
 GENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
 DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE
 EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
 AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
 CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL
 CONSENSUS. 
  
 THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND
 FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
 CIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE
 RAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
 FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM
 REMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
 DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN
 EXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
 CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE
 CENTER.
  
 THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
 OCCURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART