648 
 WTNT42 KNHC 072049
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
 400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008
  
 AS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO
 STRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.
 SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH
 COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
 PLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND
 HAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS
 OF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT
 ORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
 UNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...
 STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP
 UNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY
 OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH
 SHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM
 QUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A
 LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  A GRADUAL TURN TO
 THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
 AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
 STATES.  TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH
 THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
 LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE
 LONGER-TERM.  HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE
 SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH
 OF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING
 SLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER
 MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY
 AND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE
 PERIOD.  IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
 MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST
 WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
 ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
 HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
 PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
 SHEAR.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 18.7N  81.3W    90 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  80.9W   100 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    95 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N  78.6W    85 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.8N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN