084
WTPA41 PHFO 132102
TCDCP1
HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016
PALI CONTINUES ON ITS UNUSUAL JANUARY JOURNEY THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 200/6 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BASED PARTLY ON
A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE 12 UTC POSITION USING MICROWAVE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE CONTINUES TO
BE DISRUPTED...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR
OF 15 TO 20 KT ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
ANALYSES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM HFO...JTWC...SAB...AND
THE CIMSS ADT. OUR ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS...AS THE CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE WAS ONLY 58 KT.
PALI/S UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TO WAKE
ISLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS WITH PALI MAKING A BROAD ARC AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM A
SOUTHWARD MOTION TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL-CLUSTERED AFTER 48
HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF PALI APPEAR IN THE
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE REASON
FOR THIS DIFFERENCE...BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE HAD SOME
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE SO CLOSE TO THE
EQUATOR. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS WELL AS PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE
EQUATOR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SHOW SHEAR WEAKENING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...AND PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF
PALI CAN SURVIVE IT/S CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THE EQUATOR...
REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW...
HOWEVER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 3.4N 171.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 2.8N 172.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 2.3N 173.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 2.1N 174.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 1.9N 176.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 2.0N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 2.3N 178.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 3.2N 175.7E 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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