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 084 
 WTPA41 PHFO 132102
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016
 
 PALI CONTINUES ON ITS UNUSUAL JANUARY JOURNEY THROUGH THE FAR
 SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 ESTIMATED TO BE 200/6 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BASED PARTLY ON
 A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE 12 UTC POSITION USING MICROWAVE IMAGERY
 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE CONTINUES TO
 BE DISRUPTED...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR
 OF 15 TO 20 KT ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
 ANALYSES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
 FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM HFO...JTWC...SAB...AND
 THE CIMSS ADT. OUR ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS...AS THE CIMSS SATCON
 ESTIMATE WAS ONLY 58 KT. 
 
 PALI/S UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY. THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
 RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TO WAKE
 ISLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
 HOURS WITH PALI MAKING A BROAD ARC AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM A
 SOUTHWARD MOTION TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL-CLUSTERED AFTER 48
 HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF PALI APPEAR IN THE
 GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
 MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE REASON
 FOR THIS DIFFERENCE...BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE HAD SOME
 DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE SO CLOSE TO THE
 EQUATOR. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  
 
 MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS WELL AS PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE
 EQUATOR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND
 THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SHOW SHEAR WEAKENING ALONG
 THE FORECAST TRACK...AND PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF
 PALI CAN SURVIVE IT/S CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THE EQUATOR...
 REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
 PACIFIC. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW...
 HOWEVER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z  3.4N 171.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z  2.8N 172.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z  2.3N 173.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z  2.1N 174.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z  1.9N 176.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z  2.0N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z  2.3N 178.5E   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  18/1800Z  3.2N 175.7E   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD
 
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