351 
 WTPA41 PHFO 081436
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016
  
 DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER OF PALI OVERNIGHT. A
 0549 UTC CORIOLIS PASS...A 0644 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND A 0904 UTC
 AMSUB PASS WERE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EARLIER SSMIS PASS AT
 0316 UTC TO DETERMINE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT AND
 THAT THE CENTER OF THE SHEARED SYSTEM WAS FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
 ANTICIPATED. ALSO...A 0905 ASCAT-B PASS THAT CLIPPED THE EASTERN
 PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE STRONGER THAN
 EARLIER ESTIMATES. NUMEROUS 50 TO 55 KT RAIN-FLAGGED DETECTIONS WERE
 REVEALED WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UN-
 FLAGGED 45 KT RETRIEVALS NEARBY...THESE DATA APPEAR REASONABLE.
 ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS...
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL
 CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE ASCAT DATA...
 ALONG WITH A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON
 OF 52 KT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES...AT 9 KT.
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST
 ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF
 ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE
 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
 ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A STEADY
 DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE
 TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH
 ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE
 TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE PRIOR
 ADVISORY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR
 AND FIVE.
  
 BEING IN THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
 FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE
 EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT THIS TIME...AND
 CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME
 DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAKENING
 DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND CONSIDERABLE
 SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/1500Z  7.4N 172.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z  7.9N 172.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z  8.5N 173.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z  8.7N 173.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z  8.8N 174.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z  8.8N 174.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  12/1200Z  8.4N 175.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  13/1200Z  7.5N 175.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE