351
WTPA41 PHFO 081436
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016
DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER OF PALI OVERNIGHT. A
0549 UTC CORIOLIS PASS...A 0644 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND A 0904 UTC
AMSUB PASS WERE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EARLIER SSMIS PASS AT
0316 UTC TO DETERMINE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT AND
THAT THE CENTER OF THE SHEARED SYSTEM WAS FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. ALSO...A 0905 ASCAT-B PASS THAT CLIPPED THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE STRONGER THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATES. NUMEROUS 50 TO 55 KT RAIN-FLAGGED DETECTIONS WERE
REVEALED WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UN-
FLAGGED 45 KT RETRIEVALS NEARBY...THESE DATA APPEAR REASONABLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS...
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL
CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE ASCAT DATA...
ALONG WITH A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON
OF 52 KT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES...AT 9 KT.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE
TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH
ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE PRIOR
ADVISORY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR
AND FIVE.
BEING IN THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME
DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 7.4N 172.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 7.9N 172.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 8.5N 173.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 8.7N 173.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 8.8N 174.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 8.8N 174.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 8.4N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 7.5N 175.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER WROE
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