114
WTPA41 PHFO 080256
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016
PAIL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM ALL SITES. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF
PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT
WITH MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLOW-MOVING AND CURVING WEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND
OTHERS KEEPING IT MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST. I HAVE KEPT PALI ON A
FISHHOOK-SHAPED TRACK...TURNING SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ANY CASE FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE
SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING. DESPITE THE
SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT
IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 5.2N 171.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 5.9N 171.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 7.0N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 7.6N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 8.0N 173.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 8.2N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 8.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 7.5N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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