510 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 210243
 TCDEP2
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 Paine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep
 convection for more than 12 hours.  Since the cyclone is within
 an area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep
 convection is not likely to return.  As a result, the system has
 become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
 Paine.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various
 subjective Dvorak T-numbers.  Post-tropical Paine is not expected
 to be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with
 Baja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds,
 resulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt.  Now that the remnant
 low will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn
 north-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in
 forward speed.  The new official forecast is near the consensus of
 the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown