256 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016
 
 Paine is quickly losing organization this evening.  A very timely
 2334 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that the low- and mid-level
 centers are beginning to decouple due to increasingly south-
 southwesterly shear.  As a result, subjective Dvorak data T-numbers
 have started to decrease, and the initial wind speed has been
 reduced to 70 kt for this advisory.  Paine will be moving over much
 cooler SSTs and into a higher shear environment during the next day
 or so.  This should cause rapid weakening, and Paine is expected to
 become a tropical storm by early Tuesday, and degenerate into a
 remnant low within 36 hours.
 
 Paine appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate
 of 345/11 kt.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
 before, with the tropical cyclone moving northward, then north-
 northeastward between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast
 and an upper-level low to its northwest.  As Paine weakens and
 becomes a shallow system, it should decelerate when it comes
 under the influence of weaker low-level flow west of the Baja
 California peninsula.  The track models are in good agreement,
 and the NHC foreast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0300Z 23.8N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 25.3N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 27.3N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/1200Z 28.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  22/0000Z 29.6N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown