254 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 190238
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016
 
 Paine continues to quickly strengthen this evening.  The convective
 banding has improved, with a mid-level eye feature now apparent in
 recent microwave images.  The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers
 from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and objective estimates from
 UW/CIMSS have climbed to T3.8 or about 60 kt, which is the basis
 for the 60-kt advisory intensity.  Paine is expected to remain in a
 low shear environment through tomorrow morning, while it remains
 over SSTs greater than 26C.  This should allow for some additional
 strengthening and Paine is forecast to become a hurricane overnight
 or early Monday.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast
 to move over progressively cooler waters and into an area of
 increasing southwesterly shear, which should cause rapid weakening.
 Paine is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and
 dissipate shortly thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is below
 the SHIPS/LGEM statistical guidance, and is closest to the HWRF
 model.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/13 kt.  The cyclone is forecast
 to move north-northwestward, then northward around the southwestern
 and western portions of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over
 northern Mexico.  As Paine weakens and become a more shallow
 system, it should slow down and then dissipate just west of the Baja
 California peninsula in 3 to 4 days.  Some of the dynamical models
 take a stronger system northeastward into Mexico, but given the
 hostile atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions west of the Baja
 peninsula, this solution seems unlikely at this time.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
 in a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in
 these areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0300Z 19.5N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  19/1200Z 20.9N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  20/0000Z 23.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  20/1200Z 25.0N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  21/0000Z 26.6N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  22/0000Z 28.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown