999 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 261434
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016
 900 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016
 
 The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past
 several hours and it appears that the system is degenerating in a
 trough of low pressure. It is very difficult to ascertain if there
 is a circulation by inspecting the conventional satellite imagery
 or even earlier microwave data. Based on continuity and recent
 Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is estimated generously at
 40 kt.  Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend,
 additional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become
 a trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner.  This is the
 solution provided by the UK, ECMWF and GFS global models.
 
 The initial motion is uncertain given the difficulty in locating
 the center. The best estimate is 260 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone
 is south of a strong ridge of high pressure, and this pattern should
 continue to steer the system on a general westward track until
 dissipation.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/1500Z  9.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z  8.6N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z  8.3N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z  8.3N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z  8.7N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  29/1200Z 10.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila