264 
 WTNT41 KNHC 241434
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
 1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016
 
 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of
 Otto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the
 hurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped
 to 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while
 the SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery
 showed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized
 with a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and
 the Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,
 the initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.
 
 There is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before
 Otto makes landfall during the next several hours. However,
 weakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland
 across Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the
 eastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should
 continue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that
 strong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone
 should become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
 NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.
 
 Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving
 toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is
 trapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high
 pressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,
 the hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest
 track for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto
 should turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of
 the high. The track guidance is very consistent with this
 scenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC
 forecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 NHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for
 flying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 11.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 10.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  24H  25/1200Z 10.3N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
  36H  26/0000Z  9.8N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z  9.0N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila