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 688 
 WTNT41 KNHC 240234
 TCDAT1
 
 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
 1000 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016
 
 A strong convective burst occurred near the center of Otto as an
 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the
 cyclone near 0000 UTC.  This resulted in the aircraft reporting
 central pressures near 977-979 mb, 850-mb flight-level winds in
 excess of 100 kt, and dropsondes supporting surface winds of at
 least 80 kt. However, these winds may have been associated with a
 transient mesocyclone in the strong convection, as data from a
 subsequent penetration showed a central pressure near 981 mb and
 lower winds. The initial intensity is now 75 kt based on 700-mb
 flight-level winds from the last aircraft pass, and there is a
 larger than normal uncertainty about this value.
 
 Conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening before the
 hurricane makes landfall over Central America on Thursday, and the
 intensity forecast shows modest strengthening for the first 12
 hours. Otto should weaken significantly while crossing southern
 Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and it is expected to emerge into
 the Pacific as a tropical storm between 24 and 36 hours.  Strong
 easterly vertical shear should prevent re-intensification, and the
 new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in
 showing a slow decay to a remnant low by 120 hours.  However, it
 should be noted that the Pacific portion of the intensity forecast
 lies near the low end of the intensity guidance.
 
 Otto is moving a little faster with the initial motion now 275/8.
 The hurricane should make landfall over southern Nicaragua or
 northern Costa Rica sometime on Thursday.  After landfall, a strong
 low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the cyclone
 westward to west-southwestward through 96 hours.  Near the end of
 the forecast period, Otto or its remnants should approach the
 western end of the ridge and turn west-northwestward. The track
 guidance remains in good agreement, and the new forecast track is a
 slightly faster version of the previous track.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 11.2N  82.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 10.9N  85.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  36H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
  48H  26/0000Z 10.0N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z  9.5N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z  9.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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