036 
 WTNT41 KNHC 221442
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016
 
 Otto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate
 that the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central
 dense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle
 evident.  The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
 recorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of
 about 60 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt
 for this advisory.
 
 Weak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the
 next couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm
 water.  These conditions should allow Otto to continue to
 strengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane
 before making a central American landfall.  The official intensity
 forecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the
 intensity consensus and the HWRF model.  Land interaction will
 cause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely
 to dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific.  Most of the
 guidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the
 remnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone
 status over the eastern Pacific.
 
 Otto really isn't moving much, with recon fixes showing little net
 motion during the morning hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to
 build over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should
 cause Otto to move slowly westward.  As the ridge builds, the
 forecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
 across the eastern Pacific.  The guidance continues to trend
 southward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 10.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake