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 290 
 WTNT41 KNHC 220837
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
 400 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016
 
 Deep convection has continued to burst near the low-level center of
 Otto tonight.  A pair of ASCAT passes between 02Z and 03Z showed
 peak winds of around 45 kt, which support maintaining the intensity
 at 50 kt for this advisory.  This intensity estimate is also
 represents a blend of the 06Z subjective Dvorak estimates of 45 kt
 and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 53 kt.  An Air Force Reserve
 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Otto later
 this morning.
 
 Otto's outflow pattern remains restricted south and southeast of the
 center, consistent with about 20 kt of shear analyzed over the
 cyclone by the SHIPS model analysis and UW-CIMSS.  This shear is
 forecast to persist for the next 24 h or so and then abate somewhat
 by 36 hours.  Given this, some gradual strengthening is expected
 while Otto moves over waters of around 29C, and the NHC forecast
 shows Otto becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 h.  The official
 forecast through 48 h is a little above the intensity consensus and
 close to the latest FSU Superensemble and the NOAA HFIP consensus
 aid HCCA.  After that time, land interaction should result in
 weakening and much of the guidance continues to suggest that Otto
 will weaken to a remnant low after it emerges into the eastern
 Pacific, and this is still reflected in the official forecast.  It
 is worth noting, however, that the ECMWF maintains Otto as a
 stronger cyclone over the Pacific through day 5.
 
 After drifting south-southeastward overnight, Otto is estimated to
 be stationary.  Little net motion is expected today while the
 tropical cyclone is caught in a region of weak steering currents. By
 24 hours, a mid-level ridge will begin to build north of Otto, which
 should impart a west-northwestward motion and then a westward turn
 at a slightly faster forward speed by 48 h as the ridge amplifies.
 This synoptic pattern should steer Otto toward the coast of Central
 America in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, a further westward
 acceleration is expected as the mid-level ridge builds westward.
 The new NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one at 48
 hours and beyond and has been adjusted southward at days 3-5.  The
 new official forecast lies between HCCA and the FSU Superensemble
 through 48 hours and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF after
 that time.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0900Z 10.7N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 10.7N  79.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 10.9N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 11.2N  80.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 11.2N  82.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  25/0600Z 11.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  96H  26/0600Z 10.5N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/0600Z 10.0N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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