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 458 
 WTNT41 KNHC 212038
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
 400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016
 
 Since the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave
 satellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better
 organized.  Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of
 this afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission.  The initial
 intensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier
 scatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from
 TAFB and SAB.  The upper-level outflow is restricted over the
 southeastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued
 south-southeasterly vertical shear.  Strengthening to a hurricane
 seems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close
 to the model consensus.  There remains a lot of uncertainty as to
 whether Otto will survive crossing Central America.  The official
 forecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as
 suggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.
 
 There has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while
 Otto remains in an environment of weak steering currents.  The
 global models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building
 to the north of the storm over the next several days.  This should
 cause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a
 continued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the
 latter part of the period.  The official track forecast is close to
 a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/2100Z 11.3N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 11.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 11.1N  79.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 11.1N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 11.2N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1800Z 11.2N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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