906 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010232
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004
  
 OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE
 SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT
 DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
 AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A
 UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR
 THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
 REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT
 APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS
 LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A
 REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
 BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
 SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
 MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 31.6N  50.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 31.4N  50.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 31.0N  49.7W    35 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    35 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 29.5N  48.0W    30 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N  46.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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