878 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 030241
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
  
 THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
 EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR
 DEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA
 JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE
 DECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A
 COMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON
 DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA
 CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER
 RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48
 HOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
 NOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE
 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE
 LOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
 NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO
 WOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON
 THE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW
 MOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W    40 KT
  12HR VT     03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W    25 KT
  36HR VT     04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W    20 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
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