998 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 012039
 TCMEP5
 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152005
 2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
 ANDRESITO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
 COMPLETION.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
 THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ON EITHER SIDE
 OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO
 NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
 SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD
 TO EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WATCH ALONG THE GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN
 EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
 HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
 THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
 MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
 AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
 BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
 OTIS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY
 OR SUNDAY.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   3 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
 64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
 AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.9W
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W...OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND NW MEXICO
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.9W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 $$