480 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 011509
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005
  
 THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT
 CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP
 CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE
 MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL
 INTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE.  DVORAK T
 NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0.  THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT.  VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR
 AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY
 COOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE.
 
 OTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3.  A
 MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD
 MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
 FAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
 DISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.
  
 THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE
 FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT
 COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD
 SUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG
 PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A
 HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W    85 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W    80 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W    80 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W    70 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W    65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W    40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W    25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA
 120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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