Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 581 
 WTNT45 KNHC 040832
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
 500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
 DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO
 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35
 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE
 LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A
 TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
  
 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS
 EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE
 DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
 OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN
 NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER
 NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
 LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
 LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
 CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z 20.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 21.1N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 22.7N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 24.9N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for OSCAR

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman