375 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161450
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016
 
 Convection associated with Orlene has decreased significantly during
 the past six hours, with only a small area of shower activity
 remaining southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is
 reduced to 40 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and
 continuity from the previous advisory.  A combination of marginal
 sea surface temperatures and entrainment of very dry air should
 cause continued weakening through the forecast period even though
 Orlene is in a light vertical shear environment.  The intensity
 forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression
 in about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48
 hours. If the convection does not return, both of these events could
 happen earlier.
 
 The initial motion is 270/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
 north of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or
 so, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a
 weakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is similar to the
 previous track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and
 consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 19.8N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 19.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 19.9N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 20.0N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z 20.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z 22.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven