786 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 141501
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016
 
 A combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates
 there has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the
 last advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the
 south of the upper-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates
 from SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the
 initial intensity remains 70 kt.  However, objective estimates
 suggest this could be a bit generous.
 
 There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
 Vertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to
 remain low during the next several days.  However, the tropical
 cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a
 drier and more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are
 expected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast
 period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since
 the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN
 intensity model consensus.
 
 The initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2.  A faster
 motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the
 next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of
 the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to
 upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian
 Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing
 the cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  The new forecast track is
 similar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement
 with the various consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven