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 959 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 112033
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016
 
 Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite images indicate that
 Orlene continues to become more organized.  The cyclone has
 well-defined curved bands, and a recent SSMIS image showed that it
 has a mid-level eye feature.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
 now T3.0/45 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T3.5/55 kt.
 However, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt.  Given
 this wide range, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this
 advisory.
 
 Satellite data indicate that Orlene's center is a little bit
 northeast of the previous estimates, and the initial motion is now
 310/12 kt.  There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning.
 Orlene should turn northwestward and then northward and slow down
 drastically during the next 48 hours when it becomes positioned to
 the west of the subtropical ridge axis, and south of an amplifying
 trough over California.  After 48 hours, the ridge will gradually
 restrengthen to the north of Orlene, forcing it toward the west with
 an increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period.
  The official track forecast has been shifted a little northeast of
 the previous forecast to account for the repositioning of Orlene's
 center, but otherwise it still closely follows the TVCX multi-model
 consensus.
 
 Given Orlene's improved structure, as well as favorable sea surface
 temperatures and low shear, rapid intensification still looks like a
 possibility.  The SHIPS guidance continues to indicate a 1-in-3
 chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours, and the raw
 guidance itself brings Orlene to a hurricane in about 24 hours. The
 NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity close to
 the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble in about 36 hours, which
 is at the top end of the guidance envelope.  After 36 hours,
 Orlene's slow motion over sea surface temperatures between 26-27C is
 likely to lead to upwelling of colder water, and the cyclone is
 expected to gradually weaken through the end of the forecast period.
 This new forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
 advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 18.6N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 19.5N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 19.0N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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