663 
 WTNT41 KNHC 030252
 TCDAT1
  
 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42...CORRECTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
  
 CORRECTED FOR 48-HOUR STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE
 
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
 THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY
 INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...RECENT
 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
 OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
 THIS TILT IS DUE TO THE 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOWN OVER THE
 CYCLONE IN ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...LEANING TOWARD
 THE HIGH END OF A BLEND OF DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
 AND SAB. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND THE
 SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BY 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL BE 
 EXTRATROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL
 SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
  
 BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 025/29. HOWEVER...THE TRACK
 FORECAST REASONING REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. OPHELIA WILL TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
 SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTIONS WILL BRING THE CENTER
 OF OPHELIA NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY
 MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...OPHELIA WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
 MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
 UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
 IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
 AND GFS MODELS.
  
 THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED
 ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z 43.9N  58.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 46.6N  53.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 49.8N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  04/1200Z 53.0N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN