815 
 WTNT41 KNHC 221432
 TCDAT1
  
 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011
  
 OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
 IMAGES.  EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS
 IT IS...IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
 SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  FROM A
 DVORAK PERSPECTIVE...THE SYSTEM IS RATED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL
 STORM.  HOWEVER...BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN
 SAYING OTHERWISE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. 
 AS OPHELIA APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...THE
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE STORM IS LIKELY TO
 INCREASE FURTHER.  SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
 TO THE STRONG SHEAR.  AFTERWARDS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
 TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR THE STORM
 WILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.  BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND SOME OF THE OTHER
 NUMERICAL MODELS.
 
 IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO TRACK THE CENTER BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
 ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A GRADUAL TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE
 SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  LATER IN
 THE PERIOD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON
 THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/1500Z 13.6N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 14.0N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 15.0N  52.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 16.2N  54.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  24/1200Z 17.4N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  25/1200Z 20.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  26/1200Z 22.5N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  27/1200Z 25.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH