083 
 WTNT41 KNHC 142100
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
  
 NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED
 DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE
 OPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE
 INTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED
 EARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
 HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME
 MORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A
 SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
 THE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL
 ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND
 SPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO
 BE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A
 POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE
 BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY
 EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A
 STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY
 AREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER
 DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY
 MOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS
 LARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
 OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN
 ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC
 MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES
 OPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS.
 
 THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO
 STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS
 ...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE
 SOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH
 COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N
 LATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 34.1N  77.2W    75 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 34.8N  76.4W    80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.4W    75 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  74.1W    70 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.5N  72.2W    65 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 41.3N  65.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 46.0N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 49.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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