398 
 WTNT41 KNHC 122112
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
 
 THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOSTLY
 OBLITERATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BANDS 50-60 N
 MI OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY
 EXTENSIVE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT
 MIXING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
 LEVEL AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
 NEAR 60 KT.  OPHELIA IS CROSSING THE GULF STREAM SO THERE IS STILL
 SOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...UNLESS AND UNTIL THE
 INNER CORE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
 UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
 OPHELIA WILL RE-ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
 A SLOW AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 310/3...HAS BEEN
 OBSERVED SINCE LATE MORNING.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL
 DEFINED AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
 FORECAST.  SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
 TROUGH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RECURVE OPHELIA AND TAKE IT
 NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 DAYS...WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
 ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OPHELIA WILL 
 MEANDER OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH
 CARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE
 NORTH ATLANTIC BY 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF
 DIVERSE GUIDANCE BUT DOES INDICATE RECURVATURE...AND A
 NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
 GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.
 
 STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS SHOWN IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE BASED ON A
 CATEGORY 1 LANDFALL. 
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 31.8N  77.4W    60 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 32.3N  77.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 32.8N  78.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 33.3N  78.0W    65 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.2N  77.7W    65 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 35.5N  76.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 41.0N  67.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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