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 217 
 WTNT41 KNHC 110237
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
 OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
 CONVECTION.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL
 OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
 ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN
 THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE
 WINDS.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE
 PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.
 
 OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
 HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
 LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
 NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN.  THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE
 MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY
 STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY
 NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
 ALTANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT
 OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH
 CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE
 STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
 SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. 
 THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
 THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
 OF THAT TIME.
 
 OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...
 AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. 
 THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE. 
 HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO
 BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH
 THE SLOW-MOVING STORM.  NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
 CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF
 THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA
 PASSED OVER IT.  ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C
 EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM.  SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE
 AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS
 DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A
 LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS SUIT.  HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER
 36-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT
 SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
 
 THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
 U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A
 TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT
 SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THEREFORE...IT IS TOO
 EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
 UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0300Z 31.8N  75.8W    70 KT
  12HR VT     11/1200Z 31.7N  75.8W    70 KT
  24HR VT     12/0000Z 31.7N  76.1W    75 KT
  36HR VT     12/1200Z 32.0N  76.4W    75 KT
  48HR VT     13/0000Z 32.4N  76.7W    75 KT
  72HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  77.5W    75 KT
  96HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  76.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
  
  
 $$
 
 
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