084 
 WTNT41 KNHC 081453
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
 CENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE
 SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER
 VELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT.  THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
 OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE
 SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST.  A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST
 MEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE.  THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  OPHELIA IS OVER
 WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15
 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE
 SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
 THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED. 
 ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
 STORM AROUND 18Z.
 
 STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN
 LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY.  OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2
 SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS.  THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-
 SCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION.  HOWEVER THE GFS
 AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
 NEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED
 STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD
 MOTION.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO
 EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
 THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK
 TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
 LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
 BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 28.6N  79.6W    50 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 28.7N  79.6W    55 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  79.3W    60 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N  78.7W    65 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  78.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 31.0N  76.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  76.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  76.0W    70 KT
  
  
 $$