369 
 WTNT41 KNHC 062032
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
 HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE
 REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA
 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE
 IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE
 WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE
 TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
 THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH
 A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
 BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A
 LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE
 GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING
 CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
 ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
 THE GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY
 UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE
 WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT
 UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE
 CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW
 TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
 OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE
 MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
 SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 26.7N  78.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 27.2N  78.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 27.7N  79.2W    40 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 28.1N  79.6W    50 KT
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 28.7N  80.2W    60 KT
  72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  81.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
  
  
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