193 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 111432
 TCDEP1
  
 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
 800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018
  
 The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to
 the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past
 several hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away
 from the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity
 estimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30
 kt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is
 forecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I
 have no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into
 a remnant low within the next 12 hours or so.
  
 Satellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the
 west or 280 degrees at about 4 kt.  The depression or its remnants
 will continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the
 northwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This
 is the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the
 system opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to
 expected a westward drift instead.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Avila