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 552 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 110842
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
 200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018
 
 West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the
 depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the
 main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours.  Despite
 the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data
 confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.  Since the shear
 is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more
 difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection
 near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a
 remnant low by 24 hours.  The remnant low should then dissipate in
 about 3 days.
 
 The depression has been moving due westward during the past few
 hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.
 The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its
 northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down
 during the next couple of days.  The updated NHC forecast track has
 been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for
 the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the
 guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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