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 546 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 110235
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018
 800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018
 
 Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong
 convection to the northeast of the center even though it is
 encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
 Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
 from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The
 continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level
 trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast
 this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing
 the cyclone to even stronger shear.  Based on this, the intensity
 forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for
 the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less
 than 24 h.  One small change from the previous forecast is to keep
 the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the
 dynamical model guidance.
 
 The initial motion is 295/8.  Through its lifetime, the cyclone
 should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the
 western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in
 forward speed.  The new forecast track is similar to the previous
 track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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