445
WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018
The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.
Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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