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 568 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 071457
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016
 
 The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated
 with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern
 semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from
 TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning
 are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.
 
 It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still
 exists in association with the system.  First-light visible
 satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain
 ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation.  The initial
 motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being
 steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of
 a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression
 should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of
 Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico.  The official
 track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north
 from that of the previous advisory.
 
 The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly
 vertical shear this morning.  This as well as proximity to the
 high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into
 its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a
 tropical storm.  All statistical and dynamical guidance show
 dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the
 Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall.  The official intensity
 forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.
 
 The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
 rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
 mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in
 areas of high terrain.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/1500Z 15.3N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 15.7N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 16.0N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
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