974
WTPA42 PHFO 050235
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST THU AUG 04 2005
TD ONE-C HAD ONE LAST BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...BUT THAT
HAS FADED...AND IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS
EMERGED FROM BENEATH THE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION...HFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL NOT ABLE TO OBTAIN FIX
ESTIMATES...MEANING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY BELOW 25 KT INTENSITY.
VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TD ONE-C...MEANING THAT IT HAS DEGENERATED
INTO JUST AN OPEN WAVE. AM GOING WITH A 25KT INTENSITY TO
START...BUT THAT IS LIKELY QUITE GENEROUS. TD ONE-C IS REALLY
NOTHING MORE THAN JUST A LOW LEVEL SWIRL.
DESPITE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...IT LOOKS
LIKE SSTS WERE JUST A LITTLE TOO COOL...SO CONVECTION NEVER REALLY
FIRED LAST NITE AND THIS MORNINGS BURST WAS A LITTLE TOO LATE. ALSO
LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE DEMISE OF TD ONE-C WAS THE CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 10N 140W WHICH POSSIBLY CUT OFF INFLOW
OF HIGH ENERGY AIR INTO TD ONE-C. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE ARE NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THAT CONVECTION IN THE
NEAR FUTURE.
THE REMNANTS OF TD ONE-C WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT IT
STRENGTHENS. BARRING THAT POSSIBILITY...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM.
FORECASTER NASH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.5N 145.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.4N 147.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 149.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.4N 152.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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